Dengue is the major public health burden in Sri Lanka. Kalutara is one of the highly affected districts. Understanding the drivers of dengue is vital in controlling and preventing the disease spread. This study focuses on quantifying the influence of weather variability on dengue incidence over 10 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions of Kalutara district. Weekly weather variables and data on dengue notifications, measured at 10 MOH divisions in Kalutara from 2009 to 2013, were retrieved and analysed. Distributed lag non-linear model and hierarchical-analysis was used to estimate division specific and overall relationships between weather and dengue. We incorporated lag times up to 12 weeks and evaluated models based on the Akaike Information Criterion. Consistent exposure-response patterns between different geographical locations were observed for rainfall, showing increasing relative risk of dengue with increasing rainfall from 50 mm per week. The strongest association with dengue risk centred around 6 to 10 weeks following rainfalls of more than 300 mm per week. With increasing temperature, the overall relative risk of dengue increased steadily starting from a lag of 4 weeks. We found similarly a strong link between the Oceanic Niño Index to weather patterns in the district in Sri Lanka and to dengue at a longer latency time confirming these relationships. Part of the influences of rainfall and temperature can be seen as mediator in the causal pathway of the Ocean Niño Index, which may allow a longer lead time for early warning signals. Our findings describe a strong association between weather, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue in Sri Lanka.
from #AlexandrosSfakianakis via Alexandros G.Sfakianakis on Inoreader http://ift.tt/2e8f3Yg
via IFTTT
Εγγραφή σε:
Σχόλια ανάρτησης (Atom)
Δημοφιλείς αναρτήσεις
-
Publication date: Available online 4 January 2018 Source: European Journal of Radiology Author(s): Peiyao Zhang, Jing Wang, Qin Xu, Zhen...
-
Publication date: March 2017 Source: Free Radical Biology and Medicine, Volume 104 from #AlexandrosSfakianakis via Alexandros G.Sfak...
-
Dtsch med Wochenschr DOI: 10.1055/s-0043-100054 Hintergrund und Fragestellung Ein etablierter Weg, die optimale Behandlung von Tumorpatien...
-
Background Hyperthyroidism is associated with increased thrombotic risk. As contact system activation through formation of neutrophil extrac...
-
Deepak Thapa, Vanita Ahuja, Deepanshu Dhiman Indian Journal of Anaesthesia 2017 61(12):1012-1014 from #AlexandrosSfakianakis via Alexa...
-
Tspan5 is a member of a subgroup of tetraspanins referred to as TspanC8. These tetraspanins directly interact with the metalloprotease ADAM1...
-
Abstract Limited memory size is considered as a major bottleneck in data centers for intelligent urban computing. It is shown that there e...
-
Linked Article: Maintz et al. Br J Dermatol 2017; 176:481–487 . from #AlexandrosSfakianakis via Alexandros G.Sfakianakis on Inoreader h...
-
Publication date: Available online 28 February 2018 Source: Oral Surgery, Oral Medicine, Oral Pathology and Oral Radiology Author(s): Mo...
Δεν υπάρχουν σχόλια:
Δημοσίευση σχολίου