Brucellosis is one of the severe public health problems; the cumulative number of new human brucellosis cases reached 211515 from 2010 to 2014 in China. Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture is situated in the southeast of Xinjiang, where brucellosis infection occurs every year. Based on the reported data of newly acute human brucellosis cases for each season in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, we proposed a susceptible, exposed, infected, and vaccinated (SEIV) model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal brucellosis transmission dynamics among sheep/cattle and from sheep/cattle to humans. Compared with the criteria of MAPE and RMSPE, the model simulations agree to the data on newly acute human brucellosis. We predict that the number of newly acute human brucellosis is increasing and will peak 15325 [95% CI: 11920–18242] around the summer of 2023. We also estimate the basic reproduction number [95% CI: 2.5129–2.6225] and perform some sensitivity analysis of the newly acute human brucellosis cases and the basic reproduction number in terms of model parameters. Our study demonstrates that reducing the birth number of sheep/cattle, raising the slaughter rate of infected sheep/cattle, increasing the vaccination rate of susceptible sheep/cattle, and decreasing the loss rate of vaccination are effective strategies to control brucellosis epidemic.
from #AlexandrosSfakianakis via Alexandros G.Sfakianakis on Inoreader http://ift.tt/2dSMy0D
via IFTTT
Εγγραφή σε:
Σχόλια ανάρτησης (Atom)
Δημοφιλείς αναρτήσεις
-
Publication date: Available online 4 January 2018 Source: European Journal of Radiology Author(s): Peiyao Zhang, Jing Wang, Qin Xu, Zhen...
-
Background Hyperthyroidism is associated with increased thrombotic risk. As contact system activation through formation of neutrophil extrac...
-
Publication date: March 2017 Source: Free Radical Biology and Medicine, Volume 104 from #AlexandrosSfakianakis via Alexandros G.Sfak...
-
Related Articles Anatomic parameters of the sacral lamina for osteosynthesis in transverse sacral fractures. Surg Radiol Anat....
-
Dtsch med Wochenschr DOI: 10.1055/s-0043-100054 Hintergrund und Fragestellung Ein etablierter Weg, die optimale Behandlung von Tumorpatien...
-
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Dengue is a common arboviral disease, which uncommonly involves the brain. There has been a recent surge in dengu...
-
Abstract Limited memory size is considered as a major bottleneck in data centers for intelligent urban computing. It is shown that there e...
-
Abstract Objective Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is one of the most advanced techniques to analyze the cerebral effects o...
-
Vol.36 No.6 from #AlexandrosSfakianakis via Alexandros G.Sfakianakis on Inoreader http://ift.tt/1k8FKtW via IFTTT
Δεν υπάρχουν σχόλια:
Δημοσίευση σχολίου