Prognostic value of procalcitonin in community-acquired pneumonia

The prognostic value of procalcitonin (PCT) levels to predict mortality and other adverse events in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remains undefined. We assessed the performance of PCT overall, stratified into four predefined procalcitonin tiers ( 0.25-0.5, <0.5 mug.L(-)(1)) and stratified by Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and CURB-65 (confusion, urea <7 mmol.L(-)(1), respiratory frequency </= 30 breaths.min(-)(1), systolic blood pressure /= 65 yrs) risk classes to predict all-cause mortality and adverse events within 30 days follow-up in 925 CAP patients. In receiver operating characteristic curves, initial PCT levels performed only moderately for mortality prediction (area under the curve (AUC) 0.60) and did not improve clinical risk scores. Follow-up measurements on days 3, 5 and 7 showed better prognostic performance (AUCs 0.61, 0.68 and 0.73). For prediction of adverse events, the AUC was 0.66 and PCT significantly improved the PSI (from 0.67 to 0.71) and the CURB-65 (from 0.64 to 0.70). In Kaplan-Meier curves, PCT tiers significantly separated patients within PSI and CURB-65 risk classes for adverse events prediction, but not for mortality. Reclassification analysis confirmed the added value of PCT for adverse event prediction, but not mortality. Initial PCT levels provide only moderate prognostic information concerning mortality risk and did not improve clinical risk scores. However, PCT was helpful during follow-up and for prediction of adverse events and, thereby, improved the PSI and CURB65 scores.

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