Probabilistic climate change scenarios for viticultural potential in Québec

Abstract

Climate conditions for Québec's viticultural potential (VP) during upcoming decades are estimated through high-resolution probabilistic climate scenarios (PCS) based on a large ensemble of simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). VP is investigated through four temperature-related indices identified as current limiting factors for cold, northern latitudes: length of frost-free season (CNFD), growing degree-days (DDB10), annual winter minimum temperature (AWMT), and annual number of very cold days (ANVCD). Results show that by 2040–2050, most of southern Québec can reasonably expect favorable climatic conditions, with enough consecutive frost-free days and growing degree-days for growing current hybrid-grape varieties, as well as some Vitis vinifera grape varieties. Regions with new VP are identified, for example southern Outaouais and along the St-Lawrence River. Cold winter temperatures remain problematic, but technical solutions to this limiting factor exist.

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