An Analysis of Tropical Cold-Point Tropopause Warming in 1999

Using reanalysis datasets, the warming of the tropical tropopause in 1999 and its evolution are investigated. It is found that there is a strong rate of increase in tropical cold-point tropopause temperature (CPTT) in June 1999, with negative CPTT anomalies before June (March-April-May) and large positive anomalies after June (July-August-September). Multiple linear regression analysis shows that deep convection, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and tropical upwelling associated with the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) largely explain the variations of CPTT in 1999. Before June, enhanced deep convection resulting from increased sea surface temperature (SST) over the western Pacific and enhanced tropical upwelling of the BDC lead to a higher and colder tropopause. Those two factors explain 22% and 17% of the variance in CPTT, respectively. In June, the transformation of the east phase of QBO to the west phase contributes up to more than 50% of the variance in CPTT changes. After June, reduced tropical upwelling induced by weakened wave activity results in the warmer tropical tropopause temperatures to a large extent.

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