The MTC (Machine Type Communications) system is one of the most promising technologies to provide IoT (Internet of Things) applications. The MTC system suffers from congestion due to limited data transmission capacity and burst traffic. The congestion disturbs data delivery, results in an increase of energy consumption due to data retransmission, and finally poses a threat to the providers of IoT applications. In this paper, we focus on the congestion problem and present an efficient data forwarding mechanism to regulate the burst channel access from a large number of MTC devices. To regulate the communication channel access from the devices, we predict the number of devices by separating traffic load into the prediction of the number of devices that newly attempt to have access and the prediction of the number of devices that retry to access the channel. Through simulations, we show that our mechanism improves access success probability and reduces collision probability and access delay.
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