Highway Traffic Accident Influence Area Based on Vehicle Bypass Decision-Making Index

In order to reduce the impact of highway traffic accidents on surrounding road networks, accident influence area should be determined reasonably. According to the relationship between vehicle bypass decision-making index and threshold under accident condition, the vehicles’ route choice behavior at upstream of the accident spot can be divided into two types: bypass and nonbypass. Under nonbypass condition, the method of using traffic wave theory was put forward to determine the upstream influence area. Under bypass condition, the total number of bypass vehicles is determined based on bypass decision-making index being greater than bypass threshold. Assignment algorithms based on routes were proposed. Using improved Logit model to get the selection probability and the traffic flow of each route, then traffic flow of surrounding links could be obtained. At last, the road network influenced by the accident could be determined by comparing with the level of service of each link under normal condition. The paper takes Beijing-Kunming highway as an example, and the results show that the road network formed by the influenced links was highway traffic accident influence area. Comparing with the actual survey results, correctness of the calculation method is verified. Therefore, the analytical method based on bypass decision-making is applicable to determining highway accident influence area.

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