Drought analysis in the Eastern Nile basin using the standardized precipitation index

Abstract

Drought is considered by many researchers to be the most complex but least understood of all natural hazards, affecting more people than any other hazard. Drought affects many aspects of community and environment, and any future increases in the water demand will be most critical in periods of severe drought. Geospatial analysis of the historical drought events and their causes can be used to mitigate drought impacts and to develop preparedness plans. This study aimed to identify the changes in drought frequency, magnitude, duration, and intensity in the Eastern Nile basin during the period 1965–2000, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). An SPI program based on C sharp language was developed to monitor drought in the study area. Twenty-eight meteorological stations distributed on the Eastern Nile basin were chosen to collect monthly precipitation data. For drought analysis, SPI series of 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, and 24-month timescales have been calculated. Results showed that the study area received several drought events during the long rainy season (June to September) and the short rainy season (March to May) as well. Annual analysis of SPI time series indicated that the study area received several drought events, and the most severity event was during the year 1984.

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