The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage

Abstract

Probabilistic event attribution aims to attribute weather events to anthropogenic forcings. Some claim the development of this methodology is motivated by social utility rather than scientific understanding. I trace the evolution of arguments for probabilistic event attribution's social usefulness from their origins in private climate change litigation through adaptive decision-making, and end with the methodology's relevance for addressing loss and damage due to extreme events. I show that probabilistic event attribution is unlikely to substantially contribute to litigation or adaptation, and while it is potentially relevant for addressing loss and damage, securing a lasting role in this context requires answering some key questions regarding event attribution's capacities and deployment.

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